The Curious Case of Corey Patterson

Now that Corey Patterson has decided to look like a major league hitter again, I figured we better take another look at him.  It's no secret that Patterson has an unreal combination of atleticism, speed, and power.  It's also painfully obvious that he has little idea what a strike zone is.  Let's look at a few indicators over the past four years:

              AB/BB            AB/K

2003-       21.9                4.3

2004-       14.0                3.8

2005-       19.6                3.8

2006-       54.0                6.0

Keep in mind that 2003 and 2004 were Patterson's lone successful major league campaigns.  He still didn't walk and he still struck out a ton.  Looking at his performance thus far in 2006, his strikeouts are down a bit but he is walking less than ever.  Since his 2006 results are based on 54 AB's, we might be better served to just keep them as a reference point, rather than try to draw any meaningful conclusions from them.

Instead of trying to figure out if Patterson will develop a modicum of strike zone control, it might be worth exploring how many players have been able to contribute with a similar approach- just in case he doesn't spontaneously learn a new skill that he has never shown the slightest inclination towards learning.  Below is the criteria I used to find a comparable group of major leaguers, followed in parentheses by the resulting sample size:

1) Offensive seasons  that occurred in 1980 or later (n=29,949)

2) Player had at least 400 AB's (n=3,949)

At this point, here are the median batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage of the sample:

.276/.343/.434

3) Player had 19.0 AB/BB or more (n=373)

4) Player had 4.3 AB/K or less (n=15)

Of the remaining 15 player seasons, 2 belong to Corey Patterson (2002 and 2005). 

The new median BA/OBP/SLG looked like this:

.253/.291/.404

It's no surprise that this line looks much worse than the 'everybody' line.  But don't forget that there is an inherent selection bias here.  What do I mean by this?  Well, how does a player get 400 AB's while being completely unable to control the strike zone?  Like Patterson, they must have other things in their favor.  They could have been top prospects, have great tools, play a key defensive position, or play on a team run by Jim Bowden.  Whatever the reason, there is something working in their favor that counteracted the strike zone issue enough to allow them to get 400 AB's.  Considering this, the difference in the two median lines gets even more pronounced.

If you've read this far, I'm sure you're wondering what types of names are appearing next to Patterson's on this list of futility.  Here they are:

1981 Tony Armas

1984 Tony Armas

1984 Juan Samuel

1986 Jim Presley

1986 Juan Samuel

1986 Cory Snyder

1988 Dale Sveum

1989 Cory Snyder

1990 Cory Snyder

1991 Dante Bichette

1996 Orlando Miller

1998 Todd Dunwoody

2001 Marquis Grissom

The very best offensive season anyone has ever recorded while meeting the above criteria was Tony Armas's 1984:

.268/.300/.531

With Patterson's defense and speed, that sort of production could certainly be useful.  But keep in mind that the above line, historically, is the ceiling for a player that walks as little, and strikes out as much, as Patterson. 

Even if he is able to defy the odds, it should be noted that Patterson is already eligible for the arbitration process and will head into 2007 with a baseline of almost $3 million to work with (this year's salary- arbitration almost always results in a raise for the player).  Considering that his stat line is likely to be the type to fetch more than it is worth, his salary could quickly outpace any potential usefulness.

Final verdict:  If there is ever a player that will be able to have a solid major league career with this degree of strike zone ineptitude, it will be one with Patterson's complementary skillset.  But that is really masking the point that it is unlikely such a player will ever exist.  Put simply, if Patterson wants to come within spitting distance of his potential, then he'll have to learn to take a walk more than once a month.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to write a similar piece on Todd Dunwoody for my late 90's Marlins blog.