Orioles Think Tank

Orioles Coverage for the Information Age


Posted by Mike on April 8, 2006

After a hot 2-0 start, the O's have lost their last three games.  Let's get right to the bullet points.

  • Daniel Cabrera Looked Absolutely Atrocious Friday

In one and a third innings, Cabrera threw 60 pitches- only 22 of which went for strikes.  The net result?  7 walks, 7 runs, and a 47.25 ERA.

Since being targeted for a breakout season; Cabrera has been lights out in the WBC, effective but wild in spring training, and now- has had his worst professional start in his young career.  Everyone understands what Cabrera does and does not do well.  The ability to miss bats?  Check, 8.8 K/9 in 2005.  The ability to keep the ball in the park?  Check, 0.78 HR/9.  The ability to induce groundballs?  Check, 52% of balls put into play against him were groundballs.  The ability to throw strikes?  Crap.  Last year, Cabrera allowed 4.85 BB/9, which was actually an improvement on his 5.42 BB/9 in 2004.

BUT, Cabrera is still young and even an average walk rate could result in dominance.  So what are his chances of actually getting there?  For starters, let's take a look at these graphs c/o  David Appelman (The link will open in a new window).  Notice that Cabrera is solidly in the poor zone, despite a solid stretch in the middle of last season. 

Now, let's take a look at Cabrera's PECOTA comparables list and see how/if they ever developed any modicum of control.  Below, I have graphed each player's translated BB/9 in their age 25 through 29 season (Cabrera is in his age 25 season).  Keep in mind that this will be slightly different than their actual BB/9 rate.  Cabrera's translated BB/9 in 2005, for instance, was a slightly worse 5.0/9 ip. 

As usual, players on the comparable list will only be used if they meet the following criteria:

  1. They are over 29 (A.J. Burnett is 29, but I really wanted to include him)
  2. The seasons looked at occurred after 1970 (arbitrary date, but weeds out drastically differing eras)

In their age 25 seasons, 7 out of the 17 pitchers (41%) had above-average walk rates (ie below 3.0/9 ip) for an unweighted average of 3.8 translated BB/9.   By their age 29 seasons, 6 out of 14 pitchers (43%) had above-average walk rates for an unweighted average of 3.4 translated BB/9.  The trend isn't very pronounced, but there are some notable cases of substantial improvement.  Some reverted back to being wild, others didn't.  In some cases, Ron Darling for instance, pitchers actually took a leap forward in their age 25 seasons, so their improvement would not be reflected in this graph. 

  •   A Few Birds Have Yet To Take A Walk This Season

Player/ AB's without a BB

Corey Patterson- 6

David Newhan- 4

Chris Gomez- 2

Raul Chavez- 0

I guess I shouldn't get too worked up just yet, especially in the case of Chavez.  Any bets on who will go the most AB's this year without a free pass?  The smart money is on Patterson, in my opinion.  I'll go with a guess of 32 AB's.

  • New MASN Commercials Are In Full Effect

You may not realize it from this website, which contains more than a few hastily written entries, but a huge pet peeve of mine is improper use of the English language.  And of course, I realize I am being a bit over-the-top.  That said, I cringe every time the new Leo Mazzone spot airs.  It goes something like this:

(Inspirational music in background)

Cue shot of Miguel Tejada on the on-deck circle

Cut to Leo Mazzone's press conference this winter

Mazzone: They say there is a time and a place for everything.  The time is now… the place is now

It's a cute idea.  Mazzone comes to Baltimore and restores faith in a once proud tradition of Orioles pitching.  Still, the place is now?  They couldn't find anything better to use than that? 

Maybe it's just me.  OK, probably. 


6 Responses to “2-3”

  1. hagersbush said

    Its not only you pal,it was really corny
    & right out of a George Allen(redskin coach)quote.The baltimore orioles are
    a P.R.disaster.They are constantly
    shooting themselves in the foot.

    They have in my mind created the disaster
    they have become making promises they cant
    or dont keep.If hype is their game it will
    not get them fame.

  2. pauls said

    Stumbled upon your blog and like what I see, well done. Try as I may, I couldn’t get too excited about Cabrera coming into 2k6 because of the walks and then on Friday, he showed why. Obviously can’t kill his season over one start, but it was downright awful.

  3. Nate said

    No arguments about Friday’s game here (or from anywhere else I’m sure). Friday was the first time I left an O’s game before the 7th inning. I headed for the gate in the middle of the 4th. Jawing at Sox fans wasn’t even enough to keep me in the stadium this time, due to the almost palpable feeling of emabarassment. One thing I was wondering though… it seemed to me as if Cabrera was short-arming the ball, at least more so than usual. Did anyone else notice that or was I seeing things?

  4. bradley said

    glad i didn’t see friday’s game.

    re: yesterday

    what possesses one to put newhan, matos and patterson in the same lineup?


  5. hagersbush said

    I think rightfully so,that Perlozzo
    will try to get all his players some
    work from time to time.He should be
    carefull of using Patterson for
    anything but a baserunner.There was
    the mistake.Newhan was hitless but
    had been hitting well all spring &
    Gibbons is a hit or miss proposition.
    Matos hit a double but failed w/ men on

  6. Sam said

    Is Hagerbush mocking your hatred of language errors or is that just how he writes?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: