Orioles Think Tank

Orioles Coverage for the Information Age

2006 Hitter Projections

Posted by Mike on February 24, 2006



Above, you will find a chart that has projections for 13 Orioles hitters that are pretty good bets to make the team out of Spring Training. I apologize if it’s a bit tough on the eyes, but this is about as good as I could do on Blogger (EDIT: Just click on the chart and it’s fine). If you’d like a clearer copy of the chart, email me and I’ll send it to you.

Marcel is the brain-child of Tom Tango, ZiPS is the fine forecasting system orginated by Dan Szymborski, and PECOTA is the culmination of some of Nate Silver‘s more intriguing work.

Note that playing time is a reflection of past playing time and age and that none of these systems is opinionated as to whether, say, Corey Patterson or Luis Matos should start in CF, or how fast Brian Roberts’ elbow is going to heal.

Ramon Hernandez

All three projections are pretty similar and completely reasonable. Note that all three have him playing less than a full season. But then, we already had a good idea that was going to happen- right?

Javy Lopez

He’s a pretty good bet for iso. disc. of about .50, so his OBP is going to be awfully dependant on his BA. PECOTA sees his power numbers continuing to dip and I am inclined to agree. 35 year old catchers, as a rule, decline.

Kevin Millar

ZiPS sees 2005 as a sign of what’s to come. Marcel and PECOTA both see a consolidation year between his above-average past and last season. He’s a good bet to straddle the line between useful and Sean Burroughs.

Brian Roberts

None of the forecasting systems are projecting Roberts to keep up his stellar 2005 performance but none of them are expecting him to give back all of his gains, either. If he can keep his OBP in the .360 range and continue to play solid defense, he’ll still be one of the better bets at 2B next year. His power numbers will determine whether or not he ever sees another all-star game and a ~.425 SLG looks about right to me. I’m hoping we get some word about that elbow soon. The Todd Walker rumors floating out there are less than an encouraging sign.

Miguel Tejada

Miggy being Miggy, I guess. The only surprise is that Marcel sees a decline in playing time. I don’t buy it. Miguel will continue doing what he does, 162 games a year. By July, we should know for whom.

Melvin Mora

The thing that worried me most about Mora’s 2005 performance was not the drop in power numbers or the drop in his contact rate. What worried me was the decline in his walk rate. It could mean so many different things. He may have changed his approach to compensate for declining performance, he could be listening too intently to Terry Crowley, or it could be a harbinger of things to come for a player that some feel is likely to decline nearly as fast as he ascended. I’d be happy if he met the projections above.

Jeff Conine

ZiPS sees him as useless and PECOTA and Marcel prefer the phrase “somewhat useful”. All three focus on his age more than the fact that he is leaving a notorious pitcher’s park. I’m inclined to agree.

Corey Patterson

Again, the systems are pretty consistent- even if Patterson is anything but. They see him meeting somewhere in the middle of his 2004 and 2005 seasons.

Luis Matos

To be honest, his projected lines are more useful than Patterson’s. But, if these projections come true, we will be counting the days ’til the Nick Markakis Era arrives.

Jay Gibbons

Projected to be our most useful Opening Day outfielder, but look at the competition. None of the systems expect him to earn that new raise.

  • I also found a nifty little tool c/o The Hardball Times. Using a pretty simple algorythm, it utilizes Marcel and ZiPS projections to determine optimal lineups for 2006.

Marcel

  1. Roberts
  2. Millar
  3. Mora
  4. Lopez
  5. Tejada
  6. Gibbons
  7. Hernandez
  8. Patterson (Matos would bat 9th, after Conine)
  9. Conine

ZiPS

  1. Roberts
  2. Mora
  3. Tejada
  4. Lopez
  5. Gibbons
  6. Hernandez
  7. Patterson/Matos
  8. Millar
  9. Conine

Go ahead, follow the link and substitute who you want in there. I’m sure the two line-ups it projected above should at least inspire some debate.

Also, both system’s give the O’s credit for 5.7 runs per game with those lineups. That would come to 923 runs on the season- which would have led the AL by 20 runs in 2005. Of course, this is assuming 162 games each out of Tejada, Lopez, Mora, Roberts, and Hernandez– so I’m betting the under.

 

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9 Responses to “2006 Hitter Projections”

  1. Zachary said

    Fascinating that both Marcel and Zips want Javy batting fourth.

    I personally have better expectations for Conine and Patterson, but otherwise these numbers look about right to me. I sure hope we don’t sign Todd Walker.

    The enlarged chart you get for clicking on the thumbnail looks fine by the way.

  2. Mike said

    Yeah I didn’t realize you could just click on the chart.

    It’ll be interesting to see how Javy reacts to not having to catch every day. PECOTA projects him as a full-time catcher, of course, so that could explain some of their pessimism.

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