Mark Hendrickson?

I'm sure a lot of you out there have noted that the Orioles seem to struggle against soft-tossing lefties; Mark Hendrickson in particular.  I can imagine that Hendrickson is an awkward pitcher to face- he's 6'9'' and can't crack 90 mph.  The thing is, major league hitters seem to disagree.  Up until today's game, Hendrickson's career totals were as follows:

  IP       H      HR    BB      SO    ERA    ERA+   WHIP

556.7  670    70    147    273    5.21     86       1.47

Against the Orioles, Hendrickson has posted the following numbers:

 IP       H      HR    BB    SO    ERA    ERA+   WHIP

87.3   95      12    19     44    4.02     111     1.31

And that was before tonight's game:

 IP       H      HR    BB    SO    ERA    WHIP

9.0      3       0      1       5     0.00     0.44

So, exactly why was Hendrickson so successful?  Let's explore a few theories.

1) He threw strikes.  In fact, 69 out of 106 of his pitches were strikes.  That's 65%.  Compare that with Tampa Bay's strike efficiency in the past two games, where the Orioles scored a combined 25 runs: 201 strikes / 345 pitches = 58%.

2) The Orioles helped him out.  Maybe you're not so convinced by what amounts to seemingly moderate difference in strike efficiency.  Intuitively, it does seem like a bit of a stretch to attribute all of Hendrickson's success to his ability to throw a strike 7% more often than the guys who gave up 12.5 runs/game directly before him.  So, let's re-visit something I wrote a month ago in The Orioles vs. The AL:

• P/PA (Pitches per plate appearance): Bal- 3.65/ AL- 3.74

Only Tampa Bay saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than the Orioles in the AL. The average AL team had 38.3 PA’s per game, the Orioles- 37.9. With some pretty easy math, it becomes apparent that opposing pitchers were able to throw about 5 less pitches per game against the Orioles than the average AL team; and 844 fewer pitches on the season.

Often times, people can see the value of taking pitches for the intrinsic value of a base on balls. Here, we see an example of a team that hurt itself by not taking pitches and allowing opposing starters to pitch deeper into games.

Coincidentally, only TB was less efficient at working deep into counts.  For a pitcher like Hendrickson, who pitches for TB, the Orioles should be his best chance to work deep into a game.  For their part, the Orioles made it as easy as possible for him to do so. 

In today's game, an Orioles batter came to the plate 31 times.  In those appearances, they averaged 3.42 P/PA.  That may not seem like it's particularly poor, but remember that the O's were 2% below average in P/PA in 2005 and were the second worst team in the league.  Tonight, they were 9% below the 2005 average.

Simply put, the O's have to allow themselves to work deeper in counts.  That will let them see better pitches, put more runners on base, and make the opposing starter work harder to retire the same amount of batters.   Somehow, Hendrickson is capitalizing on their inability to do so.  Perhaps he paints the corner well with what look like juicy pitches, I don't really know. 

3) The Orioles don't hit lefties well.  Last year, the Orioles posted a .762 OPS against righties, which was good for 6th out of 14 AL teams.  They posted a .760 OPS against lefties, which was good for 7th in the AL. 

OK, maybe this theory doesn't hold water.  But I should point out that Luis Matos posted a platoon advantage for the first time ever last year and is likely to regress against lefties this year; new Oriole Kevin Millar has a reverse platoon advantage over the past three years (hitting for .50 points higher in SLG against righties); and new Oriole Corey Patterson doesn't seem to be able to hit anybody.

4) The Orioles don't hit lefty soft-tossers well.  Providing an objective statistical base for this proved to be quite difficult.  What I ended up doing is looking at each AL rotation and picking out the left-handed starters that immediately jumped out (to me, anyway) as hard-throwers.  Below are each pitcher's ERA vs. the Orioles in the past three years, followed by their total ERA in that same timeframe.

Name- ERA vs. O's/ERA

Scott Kazmir- 3.33/4.06

Randy Johnson- 2.12/3.38

C.C. Sabathia- 2.21/3.91

Johan Santana- 3.04/2.83

Admittedly, I have created an arbitrary selection process, so feel free to  comment as to how I could better illustrate this point.  Nevertheless; if anything, this data shows that Orioles hit hard-throwers particularly poorly.  More likely, this data shows absolutlely nothing- which means that my original assertion that the Orioles consistently struggle against soft-tossing lefties is unlikely to be true.  Maybe I just think that way because of Hendrickson.

Well, that's all the theories I am going to run out there today.  In my opinion, the Orioles' struggles against Hendrickson are due in large part to theory #2, with a little help from #1.  I'm sure some of you have your own theories.

First Impressions

Tonight, according to Yahoo Sports, I helped make history:

Only 16,083 showed up on a chilly night, the smallest crowd in the 15-year history of Camden Yards.

That would have been 16,082 without me.  And indeed, it was quite cold.  The Orioles did their part to make it bearable; handing out blankets at the door and routing the Devil Rays 16-6.

I thought I'd pass on a few of my first impressions on the Orioles v.2006:

Nick Markakis

Tuesday, Kevin Goldstein wrote a piece on some of the surprise inclusions on various 25-man rosters.  Markakis, of course, got a mention:

I get the feeling a conversation happened in the Baltimore front office recently, and it went something like this:

[Phone rings]
Important Front Office Guy: Hello?
Voice On Phone: Hey There! You see my boy Markakis again?
IFOG: [sighs]. Yes sir, Mr. Angelos. He's going to be a good one, sir.
Peter Angelos: He sure is! I can't wait to see him with the big league club this year!
IFOG: Mr. Angelos, please don't get me wrong here. Markakis is an outstanding prospect, clearly our best, and he's had a fantastic spring. But our outfield situation is very crowded, and to keep him we're going to have to not only take at-bats away from a veteran, but go with one fewer pitcher on the roster than we'd like.
PA: Well, I'm sure you'll figure something out to get my boy Nick on the roster for Tuesday. Maybe a bench role!
IFOG: We also feel that Nick needs some more time, sir. He has only 33 games above A ball, and is just 22. No need to rush him, sir. In the minors he could play every day and continue to develop.
PA: Get it done!
IFOG: Yes, sir.
PA: OPAA!

[click]

That about sums up the more pessimistic (realistic?) viewpoints in Oriole land. 

Today, however, Markakis looked good.  Real good.  He walked in his first three AB's, which is not quite as impressive when you consider that Seth McClung looked like he was capable of walking Jose Reyes.  In the eighth inning, Markakis homered off of Dan Miceli.  Again, that's impressive, but you don't need me to tell you that. 

What caught my eye were the two AB's in between those events.  In each, Markakis drove pitches to the opposite field.  Neither fell for a hit.  In fact, Carl Crawford made an incredible play on the first batted ball to rob Markakis of a sure double, but I have to admit how impressed I am with the maturity of his approach. 

I'm sure you'll hear more than a few comments out there about Markakis batting second in the order.  For the record, I have no problem with it.  In fact, the only sound reasoning for Markakis being on the team right now is if Flanaquette believes that he has little to learn in the minors at this point and is so good that he will provide an immediate boon to the offense.  Conceding those points not only justifies batting Markakis in a premium spot in the order; it necessitates it. 

Now that the big one is out of the way, let's do a lightning round version:

Kevin Millar

He looks like he is really slow and then he still manages to surprise you with how slow he actually is.  Through two games, though, he does look pretty sure-handed. 

Erik Bedard

He did not look good at all today.  For some reason, he seemed to be rushing through his warm-ups.  I have little idea what to make of that, but let your imaginations run wild.

Jim Brower

2 ip, 2 ER.  He looked pretty bad.  Even the bottom of TB's order was making solid contact to all fields against him.

Sendy Rleal  

With Aaron Rakers out of the way, I don't think I'll be rooting for anyone as hard as Rleal this year.  I see no reason he couldn't be the go-to guy in the pen after Ray and Hawkins.

Corey Patterson

For those of you that played somewhat competitive baseball, do you remember the first time you faced a guy that could throw 90 mph?  How about the first guy that could throw a real curveball for strikes?  Remember how silly you looked until you were able to make adjustments? 

Patterson looked worse.

I fear that it is only a matter of time before the boo-birds come out in Baltimore against Patterson.  After the turmoil he suffered through in Chicago last year, beat writers questioned his mental toughness and cheered his departure.  I'm finding it increasingly unlikely that his stint in Baltimore ends any differently. 

I know, I know- cue the small sample alarm.  But in a game where everyone and their mother recorded a base hit, Patterson rarely appeared to come within 6 inches of the ball. 

Remembering Elrod

This will be a brief post, as I'm getting ready to go to the ballpark for my first game of the season.  I should get something else up late tonight.

In the meantime, I urge you to take 10 seconds to fill in your name and email address to electronically sign this petition that a friend sent me.  The petition is in support of retiring Elrod Hendricks' number.  It includes an informative synopsis of his career, life, and many contributions to Baltimore and the Orioles that is worth a read even on its own. 

Hendricks was one of those few players whose personal merits exceeded his talents and this is as good of a way to show your support as I can think of. 

Here is the link again.

The goal is 5000 signatures, which is very reachable.  The Orioles should be smart enough to honor the people that gave the most to them. 

I don't often address non-stategery related issues in this space, but this is one cause I have no problem urging you to participate in.

Some Elrod-related Reading

• The Baseball Cube's statistics page (Did you know he pitched an inning?)
• An interesting bio that taught me a lot about Ellie.
• Eddie Murray tells some Elrod anecdotes
• Elrod Hendricks on Wikipedia
• Elrod's quotes

If you haven't yet, sign the petition.

Opening Day

Pardon the delay on getting up my first in-season post, but I've been fighting off what could only be described as an ambitious viral infection.  Fevers flamed, muscles ached, and plain water seemed to be laced with ipecac; but all is better now. 

And in non me-related news, baseball is back and the Orioles won.       

OD Result     Winning/Losing Season?

2001- Win              Losing   

2002- Win              Losing   

2003- Win              Losing   

2004- Win              Losing   

2005- Win              Losing   

2006- Win              Uh oh

Just kidding, folks.   Remember, correlation does not equal causation.  Saying that the Orioles have losing seasons because they win on opening day is sort of like Buck Martinez declaring during yesterday's broadcast that "Rodrigo gives up lots of runs but he is a winner.  He finds a way to win." 

Sure thing, Buck.  Nice job managing Team USA by the way.

• Just for kicks, I re-visited the theme of a lineup optimization article I wrote a month and a half ago.

This time, though, I used this tool c/o Baseball Musings that will allow me to input my predictions.  Using the same group of players, it came up with the most and least efficient lineups, as well as where Perlozzo's actual lineup for yesterday's game fell into the mix.

Perlozzo's OD Lineup

Roberts/Matos/Mora/Tejada/Gibbons/Millar/Conine/Lopez/Hernandez      5.238 Runs/Game

Optimal Lineup

Roberts/Mora/Conine/Gibbons/Tejada/Lopez/Hernandez/Matos/Millar      5.389 Runs/Game

Worst Lineup

Lopez/Millar/Tejada/Conine/Hernandez/Roberts/Matos/Mora/Gibbons      5.091 Runs/Game

Perlozzo's OD lineup was 2.89% better than the worst lineup and 2.80% worse than the optimal lineup, placing it squarely in the middle of the pack. It's interesting to note that Conine would be the three-hole hitter in the optimal lineup while Tejada would be there in the least efficient lineup.  That certainly seems counterintuitive.  However, Mora and Gibbons are the best hitters on the team (as per my predictions), so it makes sense that they would bat 8th and 9th in the least efficient model.

• Anna Benson has apparently changed her mind about divorcing her husband, Kris. 

All this really shows is how much more difficult it is to get attention in Baltimore than in New York. 

My favorite part of the article has to be when it quotes her as saying that her marriage is "irretrievably broken" on March 31st.  Then her agent tells ESPN that Anna did a lot of soul searching over the weekend and has now had a change of heart. 

Markakis Makes OD Roster

Lots of goings ons since I posted on Friday, so let's get to it…

• As Eddie told us in the comments section of my last post, Nick Markakis will be coming north with the big league club for opening day.

I've been pretty clear about my disapproval of this move.  As if that means nothing to Flanaquette, Markakis will be starting the year in Baltimore.  I will still be rooting for him as hard as anybody.  If forced to shine a positive light on this, I'd point out a few snippets from this article.

"Every organization, at one time or another, brings somebody out of the Minor Leagues that hasn't played a whole lot. They're special people, and I think Nick's a special person," said Perlozzo.

Although Markakis has clearly been the Orioles' number one prospect for two years running, no one outside of Baltimore is expecting him to be David Wright.  But when the competition is the likes of Corey Patterson and Luis Matos, you don't have to be a perennial all-star to be a boon to the offense. 

So what impressed the O's the most?

Perlozzo said his knowledge of the strike zone is as good as anyone on the roster.

Well, at least they're looking at the right indicators.  I think Markakis has made a strong case this spring that he is capable of contributing a ~.350 OBP immediately.  There are, however, lingering questions about the extent of his power.  If he can handle CF effectively, those questions will go away faster.

The manager also said that Markakis isn't coming to the big leagues to sit on the bench

Which leads me to my next point…  There are few things short of Markakis immediately posting a .900 OPS and leading the Orioles to contention that will make this look like a particularly good move, but here are two things that could make it look like a disaster:

1. Markakis plays less than 140 games, despite being on the active roster the entire year.
2. Markakis struggles and has to spend any time in the minors.

Keep an eye out for #1, but don't step in #2.

• The O's claimed 33 year old catcher Raul Chavez off of waivers from the Houston Astros.  

The company line has been that Chavez is a defensive upgrade on Gil, but I'd wager that the most significant part of this shit swap is that I will have to upgrade my 40-man roster page; both in the coming days and again when the O's release him in the next few weeks. 

• The Orioles are looking at Cleveland Indians infielder Brandon Phillips, who is out of options and likely to be traded in the coming days.

Phillips was a former top prospect who is now better known as a perennial disappointment.  I guess it makes sense that the club who went after Corey Patterson would also go after Phillips, but I'm lost as to what his role would be on the team.  Chris Gomez is nothing special, but he can at least hit lefties and pretend to play a solid middle infield.  It would be tough to squeeze Phillips on the roster unless one of Matos, Patterson or Newhan got moved.  Assuming the O's got some value for one of them, I could see them sneaking a 2nd backup infielder onto the squad.

• The door is still open for a new Melvin Mora deal.

He's probably going to get around $9 million per.  Remember, though, anything over two years is probably a bad contract.

• I participated in two fantasy drafts today. 

The first one was a deep AL-only league with six teams.  I managed to snag Chris Ray in the 10th round (59th overall) and Daniel Cabrera in the 17th round (98th).

The second draft was for a mixed league with seven teams.  I drafted B.J. Ryan (in case you're interested) in the 9th round (62nd overall) and Chris Ray in the 14th round (93rd).

• Speaking of fantasy baseball, I'm excited to be contributing at InsiderBaseball.com (AKA Fantistics) this season.

My first set of player write-ups are due at 9am tomorrow, so it should be as good of a day as any to sign up for their excellent service (insert winking emoticon).  It comes with wonderful things like this, written by Paul Sauberer:

1. The 2006 model of Daniel Cabrera is pretty much the same as the 2005 and 2004 models. Flashes of awesome power pitching surrounded by times when he needs a GPS to have any idea where the plate is located. A breakout season does not appear in the offing if this was representative of what he will do.

This is only one of four parts of a contribution made after Paul attended an Orioles-Marlins spring training game, but you'll have to subscribe to read the rest.