O’s Send Down Pitchers, Part II

The Orioles again lightened their spring training roster by sending pitchers Brian Finch, James Johnson, Adam Loewen, Marino Salas, and John Stephens to the minors.  None of these moves was unexpected, although I suspected that Loewen might garner some additional face time with Leo Mazzone in the wake of his WBC performance. 

Loewen will open the season in Bowie’s rotation.  Few doubt his long-term potential, but 2006 will be a pivotal year in his development.  Thanks to a major-league deal give to him as a 19 year old, Loewen will have to stick in the majors by 2007 or be exposed to the waiver wire.  Looking at his 2005 season in Frederick, one can’t help but be impressed by his 9.3 K/9 or his 0.5 HR/9.  What still stands to be addressed is his command (or lack thereof).  While he is occasionally described as effectively wild, his 15 wild pitches and 5.5 BB/9 last year indicate that he is more often just plain wild.  Now, before you go conjuring up images of Matt Riley, let me assure you that Loewen very well could be capable of earning a role on the 2007 Orioles, regardless of his contract situation.  Many analysts have even mentioned him as a breakout candidate this year.  For instance, recall what Deric McKamey told OTT about Loewen in his interview here a month ago:

… as we saw in a limited sample (AFL), he can be dominating.  Obviously, his command and curveball consistency are holding him back.  He has a 50/50 chance of repeating his AFL performance in the [high] minors.

Count Baseball America among the believers.  They ranked Loewen as the Orioles’ #2 prospect and as the #45 prospect in all of baseball.  Beside his ranking, Kinston manager Luis Rivera opined:

He’ll go 3-0 on you and then the next thing you know it’s boom-boom-boom, every pitch on the black.  I’ve never seen anything like it.

The most likely scenario for Loewen is an old school Earl Weaver break-in as a member of the bullpen in 2007.  Still, his above-average fastball and potentially dominant curveball- when it’s near the plate- make him difficult to forecast.  A Liriano-like rise in ‘06 is not only possible, it could land him in Baltimore’s rotation to stay in 2007.

James Johnson will join Loewen to form a solid 1-2 punch for Bowie’s rotation.  2005’s Organizational Pitcher of the Year works with a good curveball, a solid fastball, and a change-up that would be more effective if he repeated his arm action more consistently.  As a member of Frederick’s rotation in 2005, he averaged 9.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9.    

Brian Finch was drafted in the 2nd round in 2003 (one round before Chris Ray). Entering his age 24 season, he’s hoping his second crack at Bowie is more successful than his first (in 2004).  As a starter for Frederick last year, Finch pitched his way back into marginal prospect territory with 7.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 0.8 HR/9.  He’s being shifted back to relief (where he pitched for the most part at Texas A&M) and should respond to the new role.  His best pitch is his power sinker and he does not change speeds well- something that won’t be as obvious in relief. 

Marino Salas is a Dominican signee who will pitch his age 25 season in Bowie’s pen.  After topping a K an inning for the first time in Frederick last year, Salas will need to continue that performance in AA- lest he be reduced to the organizational player tag.     

John Stepens is an old favorite of mine- an Australian who has dominated the low minors with a mid-80’s fastball.  Think of Harris- the guy who started the pennant clincher over Rick Vaughn (and buys his gloves at the same place as Brendan Donnelly).  Since settling in at AAA, Stephens has proven to have little margin for error.  Still, under the right circumstances, I’d love to see this guy get a shot at a job as a swingman.  More likely, he’s destined to be the pitching equivalent of Calvin Pickering. 

O’s Send Down Pitchers

The Orioles have sent Orber Moreno, John Parrish, and Ryan Keefer down to the minors. 

Entering his age 28 season, John Parrish has alternately tantalized fans with his potential and frustrated them with his inability to put the whole package together.  His brief 2005 MLB season (before being sent to AA Bowie to harness his control) is a testament to this.

  IP      H      R     ER  HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  ERA

17.3    19     6      6    1    17    25    0     6    3.12

The ERA looks nice and a K/9 rate of 13 is outstanding… unless you walk a batter an inning and throw three wild pitches per 9 innings pitched.  Coming off of elbow ligament replacement surgery, Parrish will likely spend the season rehabbing in the minors.  For most pitchers, stuff comes back before command when they undergo TJ.  With Parrish, I don’t know how we’re supposed to tell. 

Orber Moreno has been one of my favorite pick-ups of the off-season.  I’d love to see a scouting report on this guy because something has to be limiting him to NRI’s.  Of course, someone who follows Venezuelan ball pretty closely once told me Moreno has his own table in his winter league team’s training room.  That certainly helps explain why a man with the following career minor league stats, entering his age 28 season, has still not found a home.

  IP        H       R     ER    HR    BB     SO    WP    ERA

470.0   389   196   163    9     145    486     9     3.12

His only real crack at the big leagues was met with similar success.  Here are Moreno’s numbers with the Mets in 2004.

  IP        H       R     ER    HR    BB     SO    WP    ERA

34.2     29      17    13     0      11     29      2      3.37

He’s clearly an extreme ground ball pitcher with the ability to miss bats.  Although, it could just be that the Orioles feel Moreno needs to shake off some rust after missing 2005 to injuries.  Let’s hope he stays healthy in Ottawa.  He looks like a keeper.

Ryan Keefer has developed into a pretty decent relief prospect since being drafted in the 13th round in 2000; so much so that he has been added to the 40 man roster.  Entering his age 24 season, Keefer was switched to relief two seasons ago and had a dominant season in AA Bowie last year.  He kept his K/BB ratio at around 3:1 and his K/9 rate around 10.  However, I see no problem with letting him get a full season in at Ottawa.  A September cup of coffee seems reasonable.

• I’ve made two changes to the website worth noting.  One is the nifty 40 man roster page (in case you paid no heed to the link above).  It was a bit of a pain in the ass to make but now that it’s up, I should be able to maintain it with relative ease.  From here on out, I will only link a player’s name to their Baseball Cube page if they are not listed there.  The other change is that I now have a Feedburner site feed, a WordPress site feed, and a WordPress comments feed.  I’m not sure what the difference between the two feed providers are, but now there is an option for those of you having trouble with one of them.  Should you have trouble with both providers, please email me or leave a comment and I will be happy to bitch at them about their services (that I don’t pay a dime for).

 

• Addendum: Playing poker on the internet at 4 in the morning has its advantages.  Specifically, I just sat at a table with Billy Ripken.  Among the things we talked about: how my grandmother used to call my childhood mullet the Billy Ripken, and that time he ran into Randy Milligan chasing a pop-up and sent the 230+ lb. Moose to the DL.  Probably the first time I’ve ever chatted in a poker room text box and I wasn’t bitching about some idiot bluffing a dry side pot.

Pardon the Interruption

Actually, pardon the title of this entry.  Despite my unabated love of Stat Boy, I hate that show.  Combining Bill Plaschke and Jay Marriotti into one show is enough to make one’s ears bleed.

I wanted to apologize for those of you who have tried to get to the site and had problems over the last day or so.  In my efforts to make the site somewhat presentable, I have accidentally/intentionally deleted/restored/forwarded/masked/transferred all sorts of things.  My hope was to actually get the content up on the domain that I paid for but I can’t exactly figure it all out.  Basically, I do web design like my friend Joe rides a bike- that is to say, poorly.  For now, this is the new layout.  Enjoy.

Also, those of you that were subscribed to the old site will have to re-subscribe.  You can click on the link on the side-bar.  Let me know if you have any problems with it and I’ll do what I can to help (read: make it worse).  Some of the older formatting didn’t import particularly well, but I’ll try to weed that out over the next couple of days.

And please, let me know what you think of the new layout.

 

Loewen Beats USA, Scoffs at Patriot Act

Orioles farmhand Adam Loewen was the starting pitcher for Team Canada in yesterday’s 8-6 upset of Team USA. He threw 3 2/3 shutout innings against what might be one of the most formidable lineups ever assembled. To top it off, his opposing pitcher was NL Cy Young runner-up Dontrelle Willis.

In the bottom of the first inning, he gave up a one out single to Derek Jeter. After walking Ken Griffey Jr. and Derrek Lee, Chipper Jones came up to the plate with the bases loaded and things started to get interesting.

It was less than a year ago that Loewen first pitched against major league hitters during spring training. In case you don’t remember, he walked seven batters through one inning and left with an 81.00 ERA. Many even speculated that this exposure led him to lose confidence and struggle through the early part of his season at Frederick.

Yesterday, he put all of that behind him. Maintaining his composure, Loewen induced an inning ending double play and, in his words, “set the tone for the next couple of innings”.

Here’s a few quotes courtesy of Baseball America:

Asked what he knew of the opposing pitcher before the game, “”He’s tall,”
[Vernon] Wells said. “He throws a baseball. And he’s Canadian.”

Said Team USA manager Buck Martinez, “We knew that he had that cutter–he got it in on the hands. He pitched a heck of a game, and he showed a lot of composure for a guy that hasn’t pitched above
A-ball.”

“What organization is he with?” Jeter asked afterward, betraying his complete ignorance of Adam Loewen to that point. Told Loewen belongs to the Orioles, Jeter’s eyes widened. “I’m sure,” Jeter said, “I’ll be seeing a lot of him.”

 

Jeter’s is my favorite. 

Forecasting- Brian Roberts

There is no greater cause for optimism, debate, and concern for the 2006 Orioles than Brian Roberts. That’s a lot of hats to wear for one little guy.

Baseball America’s college ‘Freshman of the Year’ in 1997 hit his stride in 2005 as few have ever done. Roberts was the best second baseman in baseball and the best player on the Baltimore Orioles. Unfortunately, the year ended with Bubba Crosby nearly ripping his left arm off of his body- an event that could make any sort of prediction for 2006 fruitless. Early word is that Roberts is progressing nicely but may need some time on the DL in April. How inhibited he will be upon his return is anyone’s guess. This is likely the first case study of a position player coming back from what we’ll label an “arm explosion”.

All that said, what I intend to do here is analyze B-Rob’s 2005 and it’s place in his career path. Trending the data should help determine what aspects are flukey and what improvements were genuine. Moving forward, this should help us figure out what he might do in 2006 (sans the injury). Incorporating the injury into Roberts’ forecast is something I, and likely no one, is fully capable of.

Year by Year Data

Age..Year….AB……BA……OBP…..SLG…XBH….BA/BIP
23……2001….273…….253…….284………341……17………..297
24……2002….128…….227…….308………297……7………..287
25……2003….460…….270……337……….367……31……….302
26……2004….641……..273……344……….376……56………310
27……2005….561……..314…….387……….515…….70………343

No surprises- Brian Roberts improved across the board in 2005. One thing that is evident is his growing power; as in many cases, his extra base hits increased as he approached his physical peak. One word of caution, however, is that while it looks like 2004’s record amount of doubles (for a switch-hitter) were a sign of things to come, they made up over 89% of all his extra base hits. Couple this with the fact that they were in 80 more at at-bats than he had in 2005 and the extent of his power surge begins to look flukey.

His exceedingly high Batting Average on Balls In Play is another cause for concern. Speedy players can have legitimately high BA/BIP’s, but the .302 and .310 he posted in 2003 and 2004, respectively, are closer to what we can expect in the future. For the sake of argument, let’s recalculate his 2006 batting line, this time assuming a .310 BA/BIP (with equal impact distributed to 1B’s, 2B’s, and 3B’s– although, at this point, it is inconclusive as to whether or not that is the most effective way of handling BA/BIP) . We are left with the following line:

AB……BA……OBP…..SLG…XBH….BA/BIP
561…….287…….363…….478…..65……..310

Certainly that seems more in line with Roberts’ career line. Had those been his final numbers, it would have been more difficult to dismiss his gains as anything but legitmate.

With the help of Baseball Graphs, let’s take a peak at why anything beyond this batting line may have been flukey. I’m not going to republish Dave Studeman’s entire chart but you can follow this link to see the data I am drawing conclusions from in the next section.

Batted Ball Data

• The first thing that jumps out at me is Roberts’ line drive rate. In 2005, 27% of his batted balls were classified as line drives. Despite the fact that this is not a career high (2003-30%), it should regress towards the four year AL average of 21%.

• Roberts made another big jump in the percentage of outfield flies he converted into home runs. After matching his then career norm of 2% in 2004, he made a huge leap to the league average of 11%. That extra oomph he generated was the reason he set a career high in home runs last year. While 11% seems dramatically out of line with his career, let’s put it into context. You don’t have to scroll down on those charts any further than to Melvin Mora’s numbers to see that a sudden jump in HR/OF can be legitimate. Plus, Roberts has clearly entered his physical peak at age 27. And, although I can’t scrounge up a link, I remember Peter Gammons reporting that the athlete’s training facility in Arizona, that Roberts attends in the offseason, declared him the hardest worker they had ever seen (pre-breakout). Even if I were reluctant to give him full credit for reaching the AL average in HR/OF, it’s probably less likely that he would fall all the way back to previous levels.

Finally, let’s take a closer look to see if there were obvious hot and/or cold streaks in 2005 that could explain his dramatic rise in production.

Month-by-Month OPS

Apr.- 1.185
May- 1.009
June- .942
July- .705
Aug.- .715
Sep.- .904

Pre All-star break – .345/.416/.591
Post All-star break- .274/.351/.419

It’s clear that Roberts’ impressive final numbers are in no small part due to a blistering start of the season. I would be reluctant to dismiss it entirely for two reasons: 1) It lasted three months, and 2) even his post ASB numbers are above his career established levels.

Unfortuantely, I would also be reluctant to dismiss the disparity created by these splits. Regardless, the player that Roberts was in the second-half of the season may not be an all-star, but he is an above-average second baseman and a capable leadoff hitter. I have little doubt that at least the post-break gains (as compared to career numbers) will carry forward.

Conclusion

I purposely prefaced this entry with my concerns about his injury because that makes forecasting an already particularly difficult player to forecast nearly impossible. That said, I’ll avoid taking the cheap way out and offer my prediction for Brian Roberts in 2006:

124 G…441AB…284 BA…360 OBP…436 SLG… 18/6:SB/CS

While Orioles fans will likely accuse me of being pessimistic with that projection, I should note that I would likely have been more optimistic than other forecasters had the injury not occured. I’ll leave you with something positive– Roberts will likely be in the running for his first Gold Glove now that Orlando Hudson has been shipped to the NL.

The Orioles vs. The AL

I thought it might be fun to take a look at how the Orioles stacked up to the rest of the American League in 2005 in some key categories. Maybe it will help us see exactly how they fell short and what needs to be addressed in 2006. I’ll offer some commentary, but feel free to help me out in the comments section.

OFFENSE

• R/G: Bal- 4.5/AL- 4.76

Boy, that’s ugly. Only four teams in the AL scored less runs per game than the Orioles (and none from the AL East): Minnesota, Kansas City, Detroit, and Seattle. Minnesota has a top-line pitching staff, Seattle plays in a notorious pitchers park, we barely edged Detroit (4.46 R/G), and Kansas City… well, there’s something wrong if you take solace in that.

So, exactly what components of run production did the Orioles fall short in?

• BA: Bal- .269/AL- .268

The O’s were able to keep up with the league’s pace in batting average. Unfortunately, batting average has little correlation with scoring runs. In broad terms, BA’s value is essentially limited to its impact on OBP.

• OBP: Bal- .327/ AL- .333

I have to admit, this isn’t as bad as I expected. Still, the Orioles had the lowest OBP of any team in the AL East and trailed New York (.355) and Boston (.357) by thirty points. In fact, those two teams led the entire AL in OBP (and R/G… if you catch my drift).

• SLG: Bal- .434/ AL- .424

There we go. Let’s just hope those ten points weren’t propped up by B-12.

• P/PA (Pitches per plate appearance): Bal- 3.65/ AL- 3.74

Only Tampa Bay saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than the Orioles in the AL. The average AL team had 38.3 PA’s per game, the Orioles- 37.9. With some pretty easy math, it becomes apparent that opposing pitchers were able to throw about 5 less pitches per game against the Orioles than the average AL team; and 844 fewer pitches on the season.

Often times, people can see the value of taking pitches for the intrinsic value of a base on balls. Here, we see an example of a team that hurt itself by not taking pitches and allowing opposing starters to pitch deeper into games.

• GB/FB: Bal- 1.17/AL- 1.26

This certainly helps explain the O’s above-average SLG %. After all, it’s pretty difficult to round the bases when you’re hitting wormburners like Hideki Matsui circa 2003.

 

Defense/ Pitching

 

• DER (Defense Efficiency Rating): Bal- .693/AL- .696

Right around league-average. (DER is the rate at which a defense converts balls in play into outs. Its reciprocal is the pitching staff’s BA/BIP)

• RA/9: Bal- 5.05/AL- 4.74; ERA: Bal- 4.57/AL- 4.35; DIPS 3.0: Bal- 4.75/AL- 4.73

What’s interesting here is that although the Orioles trailed well behind the rest of the AL is traditional measures like RA/9 and ERA, they were roughly league average according to the superior measure of performance- DIPS 3.0.

Why is that?

• LD%: Bal- 20%/AL- 19.6%; HR/FB: Bal- 13%/AL- 12%

As I’ve explained before, both of these measures are highly influenced by luck. In neither category were the O’s well above the league average (ie unlucky), but the combined effects of the two certainly help explain the difference between traditional measures of the pitching staff’s performance and the more accurate DIPS 3.0.

• K/9: Bal- 6.4/AL- 6.1; BB/9: Bal- 3.6/ AL- 3.0

No surprises here. The Orioles tied the White Sox for third in the AL in K rate. Unfortunately, they also finished just behind Tampa Bay for highest BB rate. Daniel Cabrera was a key contributor in both categories, and helps demonstrate both the potential and the volatility of the Oriole’s pitching staff.

• GB/FB: Bal- 1.37/AL- 1.25

This is certainly promising. Again Daniel Cabrera (1.78) was a key contributor; as were Todd Williams (3.59), Steve Kline (1.96), and Sidney Ponson (1.93). You can probably tell from the latter two examples that inducing ground balls is not enough on its own to effectively retire major league hitters.

 

Conclusion

 

There’s certainly a lot here to mull over, but there are two things that jump out to me.

Offensively, the Orioles have to make pitchers work harder this year. 5 pitches per game may not seem like a lot, but that is essentially one and a half extra plate appearances per game that opposing pitchers are getting through with only their typical exertion.

On the other side of the ball, it’s no secret that Orioles pitchers have got to cut down on the walks. Still, what surprised me was how average the team was by DIPS 3.0 standards, even when other measures say otherwise. I’d expect an overall improvement in the rotation just from the expulsion of Sidney Ponson (which should outweigh the loss of B.J. Ryan- in more ways than one). But, now we can now expect those improvements over a baseline that is roughly league-average, as opposed to merely expecting improvements from a below-average staff.

Grab Bag

• Interesting tidbits in this piece. We’ll have to wait until inter-league play to see if he can hit the Warehouse again.

• I also found this nugget in Buster Olney’s blog: Talked to some evaluators this spring who agree that Lopez at first will turn into Mike Piazza II: He just doesn’t have the feet to play the position. We’ll see.

• Will Carroll’s Spring Training Updates are always a source of discussion– just ask Jim Hendry and the Chi-town media. From Orioles camp, he reports: Brian Roberts is making good progress, but is still a question mark for Opening Day. He should begin hitting soon which is the big test… Early word from Orioles insiders is that Leo Mazzone is seeing who’s willing to listen, learn, and survive. His early workouts have been, according to one source, “harder than anything I’ve seen here. The pitchers are buckling under it.” Watch to see who comes out better and if any break under the “throw more” plan of Mazzone.

• The local scribes love Melvin Mora. And who wouldn’t love a guy with 14 kids? I found this quote from Melmo over at AaronGleeman.com: “[Tony Batista] is a guy you want to have on your team,” Orioles All-Star third baseman Melvin Mora said in a telephone interview. “This is a guy who is always talking about Jesus. All of the people are going to love him in Minnesota.” And all this time I assumed Batista’s ridiculous batting stance was an effort to face Mecca. At least we finally get an explanation for this feud (scroll down to Another BP Scuffle)– apparently Ron Villone hates Jesus.

 

• Spencer Fordin had a nice little mailbag over at the official Orioles website. The only nitpicking I have to do is over this quote: “…Lopez and Benson. Neither is a classic ace, but both have proven to be league-average pitchers over the past few years, and Benson gives the impression that he hasn’t even scratched the surface yet“ If Kris Benson has a breakout season at age 31, after posting a career-low 4.9 K/9, I will eat my hat. Still, a solid MLB.com writer- not all teams have them.

• Most sportsbooks have the O’s at about 74.5 wins on the over/under. That total seems about right to me- for Vegas, anyhow. The Orioles will play 57 games against the competitive Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Still, I would have no problem betting that over. I’m going to post specific predictions later, but I think there is a decent chance that the O’s snap their losing seasons streak this year. And yes, I will be picking them for fourth place.

• Ted Cook has an article up about line-up optimization over at Orioles Hangout. It’s a good read and makes a nice companion piece to this fine piece of literature.

• This whole Zack Greinke situation must be leaving conspiracy theorists in need of a new pair of pants. I know I can’t get enough of it. As to what is actually going on at this point, your guess is as good as mine. Personally, I’m just hoping everything works out. Greinke is one of the most fun-to-watch pitchers to come along in a long time and I’d hate to lose my last reason to ever watch the Royals.

• If you haven’t gotten a chance to check out the Baseball America top 100 prospect list yet, do so now. Nick Markakis comes in at #21, Adam Loewen at #45, Hayden Penn at #81, and Nolan Reimold at #99. Only five organizations have more than four prospects on that list, and I have to imagine that Chris Ray (who was eligible for it), Brandon Snyder, and Garrett Olson garnered some consideration.